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Alright all you hard core futures traders, today we have a very special day in the live room you don’t want to miss. Professional trader and trading psychology guru BJ Nash is coming in to give a 2 hour presentation on overcoming the most common issues that affect your ability to trade profitably. This is normally a closed door session available only to system owners but today we’ve decided to open it up to anyone who want to attend. What you’re going to hear today is so secret that BJ has asked us not to record the session. That means the only way to hear this powerful message is to be in the live room. We’re starting now so get in the room and make sure you bring a pen and paper with you. You’ll need it.
I’ve been talking quite a lot about my short-term, intraday trading strategy, ‘Between the Greens’, because it takes center stage in my trading this time of the year. I’ve also stressed the importance of a short-term strategy when there is confusion and a lack of a clear bullish or bearish directional bias in a pair.
Expecting longer-term organisation of sentiment, momentum, and therefore a trend when there is no clear trend on the daily time frame is a difficult position to be in. However, it’s not that the five-minute strategy does not require organisation, it simply is on a much shorter scale. It still will take time (albeit less than that of – for example – the 15 or 30-minute time frame) for a five-minute trend to develop.
The five-minute USD/CAD trending lower at a “four to six o’clock” angle (left) compared to the lack of clarity and congestion (right). The downtrend offers opportunities to short into the bounces. The entry zone is created by the area between the 13 and 21 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but only when the time frame is in a trend.
The 13, 21, 34, and 55 period EMAs are the visual tools needed to trigger and manage a “Between the Greens” entry but the 34EMA Wave is still important because there must be a trend (up or down) on the five-minute chart, for this strategy to be valid. Notice the difference between the moving averages when there is a trend (left) versus when there is no trend (right). The trend shows the clear zone between the 13 and 21 period EMAs for the intraday entries as the market moves lower.
These charts were taken from the five-minute USD/CAD which is heading lower on the strength on crude oil. Crude has broken the 200 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily time frame and this in and of itself is a bullish move that is still carrying the loonie higher.
While daily crude oil has a clear bullish Directional Bias, the daily chart of the USD/CAD does not and this makes the shorter-term time frames (the five, 15, and 30-minute charts) my focus. In fact consider that the 60 and 240-minute time frames have yet to truly rollover and indicate a downtrend. Add to this the fact that the daily chart’s range support is waiting between 1. 0069 and 1.0053 and that this could lead to the intraday downtrend finding support, exhausting and shifting directions of moving sideways about 50 pips above parity.
The tools of this trading set up are simple because the time frame does not lend itself to time-consuming fuss and muss. The set up is almost completely visual – again – because taking too much time to consider the entry could lead to missing the entry trigger altogether. Equally important is that the “point of validity” (the price level at which the entry is no longer valid and thus the stop loss point) is as easy to identify as the entry.
I call the set up “Between the Greens” because the entry is triggered by the 13 period EMA close and the 21 period EMA close which are colored light and dark green, respectively.
The set up MUST BEGIN with either an uptrend or downtrend on the five-minute chart which means that the 34EMA Wave must first be travelling at a “twelve to two o’clock” or “four to six o’clock” angle. Then the set up basically becomes an intraday swing trade which means that once the trend is identified, the entry is triggered by a trend correction to the area between the 13 and 21 period EMA aka “the Greens”.
The 34 period EMA close serves as what I call a “warning track” and this moving average is the first layer of the trade entering a deeper correction and possibly even an intraday trend reversal. Its role is to act as nothing more than a wake-up call. The 55 period EMA close is the point of validity for the trade which means if it is pierced by three to five pips, the trade is stopped out. There are some exceptions to this level and that would be a significant support or resistance level that has proven itself within the past three to five days and/or the “00” major psychological level which can act as significant support or resistance.
This strategy – and generally any shift to primarily shorter-term time frames – come from a lack of bullish or bearish Directional Bias on the daily chart. If there is not a dominant trend on the daily, I then question the degree to which longer-term time frames can follow-through. I would rather not rely on this in a sideways (daily) market and therefore will focus on short time frames like the 15 and five-minute since they require less organisation of sentiment and momentum, as compared to the 60, 240-minute, and daily charts.
Raghee Horner, Chief Currency Analyst for Interbank FX, is an experienced trader with over 20 years in the markets. Raghee is the creator of the 4EMA Wave and GRaB candles and has taught her brand of technical analysis and charting strategies to students all over the world. She is an international author and has taught currencies, futures, and equities trading for over a decade.
The vast majority of currency traders that don’t make money know the least about what actually makes currencies move. Can you believe that? Trading isn’t all about technical chart analysis, it’s important to understand what makes currencies move… you need to understand the fundamentals.
So what drives the Australian Dollar (AUD)?
Knowing the fundamentals and flavour of the day is critical when trading the Aussie dollar. An example of a basic fundamental for the AUD that helps drive its price is Base Metal Prices. An example of market sentiment could be what the Reserve Bank Governor said at the Canberra Press Club about his concern about inflation. One is fact and the other is what traders will use to speculate on.
The Australian dollar is a world growth currency. What I mean by that is that because the Australian economy is underpinned by the resource sector and the government relies so heavily on taxes it collects from the mining sector, the AUD is closely linked to world growth and base metal prices. There are essentially nine major key fundamentals that drive the AUD, but there are three that you need to master, because there are direct correlations to knowing these and knowing what potentially the AUD is going to do.
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• Manufacturing data. (PMI)
• Interest rates.
• National Debt.
• Retail Spending.
• Commodity Prices.
• World Share Markets.
• Unexpected News.
The first key fundamental is Base Metal Prices such as Copper. When base metals prices are rising usually the AUD is following. You can view the live price of Copper on any decent broker platform. You should also be able to see the live real time prices of the following Stock Market Indexes. UK100, Dow Jones, S&P 500, CAC 40, DAX and the Australia Share Price Index. From the 960 listed companies on the Australian Stock Exchange 46 per cent of them are mining companies. So what they are doing on any given day is important.
The second key fundamental you need to know about the AUD is it’s correlation to World Share Markets. When share markets are going up that means we have what is called ‘Risk On’. Traders are taking money out of cash, gold and things such as bonds and entering equities, commodities and currencies that are considered to be more ‘Risk On’ investments. The AUD is considered to be one of those ‘Risk On’ currencies by world markets and when you see the Dow Jones Index move higher over 100 points you will usually see the AUD also moving higher.
The third key fundamental to know when trading the AUD is inflation and when the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to put interest rates up or down. To keep things really simple, when interest rates go up in Australia the AUD will usually also go up and vice versa on the way down.
When the Reserve Bank is putting interest rates up that means they are trying to slow down the growth of the Australian Economy which means growth is strong and the economy is generally doing well. The AUD will usually rally on this good news.
When the Reserve Bank is putting interest rates down this means the opposite. Growth is slowing, inflation is coming down and they need to stimulate the economy and get people spending. If you know when the Reserve Bank is likely to drop rates it can be an extremely profitable opportunity, especially if you know how to combine the charts along with the news. That’s worth a fortune.
Currently the Reserve Bank of Australia has a target inflation rate of two to three per cent. This essentially means that if rates come down inside this target band they will likely lower interest rates. There is an Inflation number that is released every month and if you see the Inflation rate at four per cent and then all of a sudden it is under three per cent then you can expect to usually see the RBA lower rates the next month.
This sort of key information is where the professional trader always beats the amateur trader to the money. The amateur trader is waiting for the Reserve Bank Interest rate announcement, the professional trader is watching the Inflation announcement two weeks prior and is also looking at overall unemployment and retail spending and gathering information from news sources and is usually out of the market when you may be about to enter.
Andrew Barnett, is a professional trader and Co-Founder of LTG GoldRock. On a daily basis he not only “talks the talk” but he actually “walks the walk”, as he guides traders around the world in the live market and advises them on buy and sell directions, as well as trading his own personal account. For more information go to www.LTGGoldRock.com
The share market can offer excellent opportunities for those who learn the techniques to trade them.
Smart investors know that the current state of the financial markets creates opportunities – can you spot the opportunities? Are you ready to take action? Whether you want to sharpen your skills, or are totally new to trading, our free two-hour seminar could be the next step in your trading education.
At this class you can find out about:
Trading in markets that go up or down.
Applying low-risk techniques which help protect your capital.
Learn the difference between good and poor trading opportunities.
Defined strategies we have been teaching for over 20 years.
About Safety in the Market.
Established since 1989, Safety in the Market is recognised as one of Australia’s leading trading education organisations. The organisation was founded by renowned trader and market forecaster David Bowden. David first began trading in 1985, and soon became one of the most successful traders of the modern era.
After years of profiting from the markets, David set about empowering everyday people by teaching them the same techniques and methods he used to create his fortune. Since then, these methodologies have been introduced to thousands of people – why not join them? This seminar is free, and you can bring along your friends or family. Have a positive impact on your life…and theirs.
In just two hours, you’ll discover the power of Safety in the Market. Whether you consider yourself to be a share market expert or an investor looking for ways to impact your results, you should take this opportunity to find out more about our trading methodology.
Learn from the experts.
Our guest speaker for these seminars is Kurt Bolinder, a former US commodities broker and financial advisor for Merrill Lynch. Kurt has been helping people from all walks of life make money from the share market for 25 years. We look forward to seeing you at one of our seminars very soon.
Best regards, Aaron Lynch
Safety in the Market
High interest home loans can bother you so much. If you are longing for ways to save your money, then consider refinance loans. Refinancing your mortgage loans helps lower your interest rates, thereby saves you a considerable amount of money. There are few factors, which need to be overlooked in order to save bucks by reconfiguring a credit. Though refinancing will help solve your financial problems, it is essential to refinance at the right time. Doing so, will help you land on the right place, thereby helping you in saving huge bucks.
Prior to refinancing your home, it is crucial that you have a considerable amount of cash. However, people with a poor financial background cannot afford to pay much. If you fall under this category, then worry no more. With careful planning and stockpiling some money can aid for the closing expenses of refinancing process. This forms a key factor in refinancing, thereby making your venture successful.
When it comes to reconfiguring your mortgage, it is important to look for the interest rates. Higher the interest rates, higher will be the money you have to spend. At this instance, refinancing your loan will be a super saver offer for you since interest rates have plummeted due to lowering of interest rates. When the interest rates face a downfall by 2% or more when compared to the original rate, you can start refinancing your credit.
Several banks out there offer low interest mortgage loans to create a customer base. Keep this fact in mind and make use of this opportunity. Select the right bank that offers interest rates according to your needs before you could start with the process of refinancing. Ensure that you look for promotional sales offered by lenders. This in turn will make your endeavour profitable. It’s a good idea to stay in your own house until the completion of this process. This will help in solving your financial problems rather faster.
Now that you have an idea of how to proceed with the process, start saving some bucks for initial start up. Later on opt for special promotional rates. Even if it does not solve your financial problems completely, it can certainly help you if played right.
Auditing your current situation (“as is”). You have to describe all your current procedures, time spent on them and the people involved. It is imperative to know what exists today and identify what needs to be outsourced. Most of the time, a company is dealing with several vendors, fragmented processes and systems that vary form country to country. Some subsidiaries have structured processes; others just rely on their vendors to guide them.
This analysis of your current situation will also help you, in collaboration with your service provider, to define your new desktop procedures and responsibility matrix (“to be”). You will be able to rely on standardized control procedures, consistent use of performance metrics, automated reports and benefit from reconciliation in order to continue to grow. You can avoid redundant data entry and gain efficiency by leveraging existing data storage tools.
Studying all the aspects of the transition to a new system. In most cases, data conversion and migration can become sources of dissatisfaction and frustration if not carefully thought out before the actual transition phase starts. It is critical to know if the data that will be transmitted to your service provider are clearly understood and match the corresponding fields.
Developing targeted communications. If you work with various service providers across borders and plan to streamline your processes on a regional or global scale, you will have to recover your data by having them transferred to your new provider under optimum conditions. This can be time consuming and impact your new implementation timetable. So, target your communication in order to inform your current providers and anticipate issues that may occur.
Communication, less technical this time, that targets managers and employees will also be necessary. You must make sure that your people can adapt to and benefit from the new organization. What will change in your employees’ daily lives? How will the HR Department be impacted? What stays in and what goes out?
It is to be remembered that transition to HR outsourcing often means transition to new processes and use of new tools such as manager and employee online portals as well as hotlines for employees’ queries. ?
Author: Patrick Nolot, Global Program Director, ADP.
If you compare the average timelines for implementation and transition required to outsource accounting and purchasing processes with the time needed to do the same with HR, you might be surprised.
While outsourcing accounting and purchasing processes to a service provider takes four months on average, the transition to outsourcing HR can take from 6 to 10 months in each country.
Managing an HR outsourcing project involves taking local legislation into account and making sure the new services are compliant with the relevant legislation. But it also involves making sure that the new processes in place are deployed in a consistent way company-wide. For example: terminations processes today are probably managed differently according to the country. After the outsourcing contract has been implemented, the termination process for each of your HR teams will be the same. This requires gaining knowledge of local practices to converge them into a global design.
On the other hand, accounting and purchasing are often some of the first functions in international companies to be industrialized and centralized in shared service centers in order to be managed globally. When it’s time to outsource them, it is then easier for a provider to literally “lift and shift” those functions, considerably reducing the transition time.
Author: Patrick Nolot, Global Program Director, ADP.
HR transformation and one of its main components, HR outsourcing, are all about going from where you are to where you want to be. In other words, taking existing organization and processes (the “as is”) and optimizing them to better serve a company’s business objectives and market challenges (the “to be”). Very easy to understand but no so simple to do!
Transition, the step that consists in transferring some of your tasks and processes to a service provider, is often associated with the technical implementation of a new solution. Even if smooth implementation remains a key to success, it is only one aspect of successful transition to HR outsourcing.
Managing the transition involves dealing with three main tasks (or streams) at
the same time:
- Process conversion
- Service implementation
- Change management and communication
These three tasks/streams need to be managed carefully according to proven methodology in each country where you transition to HR outsourcing. But even more challenging is the integration of the human dimension that is related to any international transition project. You want to be sure not o leave critical players on the sidelines.
Author: Patrick Nolot, Global Program Director, ADP. Patrick is Global Program Director and is responsible for leading multi-continent HR Outsourcing transition projects. He has a background in managing large IT-enabled transformation engagements of multinational organizations. He joined ADP in 2008. Patrick immediately took charge of the implementation of MICROSOFT Corporation’s global HR Outsourcing project for 34 countries across Europe and Asia-Pacific. He is based in Paris but and travels extensively throughout these regions.
Magazine Issue: Vol. 6 No. 2 – April 2008/July 2008
Topics: Benefits Consulting, Multi-Process HRO, HR Management Consultants, Consultants and Advisors,
Corporate globalization initiatives must align with economic reality in tough times.
by Atul Vashistha
As the world faces an economic downturn, many corporations have not yet aligned globalization initiatives to economic reality. I believe that corporate adjustments to economic challenges will also introduce the next phase of maturation in services globalization. Economic challenges will drive leading companies to systemically develop and optimize globalization enterprisewide, leading to a new phase of maturity for global services.
Corporate functions can be located anywhere around the globe, and operating units are likely to be located in distant countries. The combination of technology and globally optimized processes makes the distance transparent. A corporation that leverages this can become flexible, capable of adapting to changing business processes, legal or regulatory requirements, labor requirements, and, most importantly, economic cycles. I call these “futurized corporations.” I have observed that during an economic downturn, smart companies take actions that position them as leaders when the economy recovers. Within each market, a company is either positioned to improve or to fall farther behind. Taking no action is the worst possible choice.
Unlike the last economic downturn, customers and service providers have a deeper understanding about leveraging the global model. The environment is ideal for further evolution and reaching the next level of services globalization. Specifically, companies should be considering the following to prepare for and successfully navigate through upcoming economic challenges.
In an economic downturn or during actions such as budget cuts or spending freezes, a company must reevaluate spending priorities, but in the context of leveraging global operations. Perhaps the most difficult part of any portfolio assessment is establishing a prioritized list of projects. Each business unit will feel that its projects (whether IT, HR, F&A, or other) are the most critical and that the lack of corporate support is impeding its ability to perform. Global leverage and ROI should drive these decisions.
During an economic downturn, the alignment with business should also determine whether the needs are immediate or significant. Some business requirements that seemed critical during times of plenty may become superfluous when facing economic uncertainty. With fewer dollars to fund business support services, the company has less tolerance for waste.
Managing the supply of global services is usually the most complex factor in a portfolio assessment. The supply of services is usually derived from a complex array of internal capabilities, global operations centers, and outsourcing providers. Whether the services are information technology, human resources, financial services, or any other core or contextual service, the supply chain is usually focused on results. Business units usually take corporate services for granted, caring very little for the source or supply chain, but remain focused on results. It is paramount that operations managers continue to manage the entire supply chain to ensure consistent results and optimize the cost of delivery. Managing supply is useless unless demand is understood.
Beginning with demand, executives should benchmark internal operations against industry-leading practices. With a comparison of the overall delivery, executives can determine the root cause of any inefficiency. Whether the service requires reengineering processes, changing organizational structure, renegotiating outsourcing contracts, or bringing services back in-house, executives can begin changing the supply chain. As noted earlier, it is difficult to realize near-term benefits (in the same fiscal year) from strategic changes to the supply chain. Companies should begin immediately to avoid excess expense or change during economically challenged times.
While evaluating the supply chain is usually a transformational solution, improving governance provides incremental benefit to existing services. Just as changes to the supply chain are difficult to realize in the current fiscal year, changes in governance can often yield benefits within weeks. Throughout a portfolio assessment, executives must remain mindful of risks. Some risks can be tolerated and others mitigated, but none should be ignored or overlooked. Portfolio risk should be considered through the process.
As we enter a period of economic uncertainty, it is imperative for companies to reassess their globalization initiatives, re-balance their portfolios and ensure that these initiatives are aligned with current market realities. Organizations that neglect to do so or delay will face mounting financial and operational pressures in the next several years. Those organizations that can manage this transformation effectively, optimize their operational costs, build flexibility into their global services supply chain and fully realize their return on globalization will position themselves to weather the current storm and emerge as stronger competitors.